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Interest Rates

New Normal for The 10 Year will be Around 4.5% Says Tom Orlik

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5 months ago

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**Bloomberg Experts Forecast New Normal for 10-Year Treasury Around 4.5%**

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What’s Happening?

The financial world is buzzing with predictions about the future of interest rates, particularly the 10-year Treasury yield. According to Bloomberg’s Tom Orlik and his colleagues, the new normal for the 10-year Treasury could settle around 4.5%. This insight comes from their upcoming book, which delves into the past, present, and future of the natural rate of interest. The discussion also touches on the potential implications for the Federal Reserve’s next chair and monetary policy.

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Where Is It Happening?

The predictions and analysis are part of a broader discussion within Bloomberg Economics, impacting financial markets and policymakers globally.

When Did It Take Place?

The book, “The Price of Money: A Guide to the Past, Present and Future of the Natural Rate of Interest,” by Bloomberg’s Jamie Rush, Stephanie Flanders, and Tom Orlik, is set to be published on August 8th. The insights shared are part of ongoing discussions about future economic trends.

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How Is It Unfolding?

  • The book offers a collection of essays by Bloomberg Economics team, providing a comprehensive look at the natural rate of interest.
  • Tom Orlik discusses the potential future of the 10-year Treasury yield, forecasting it to stabilize around 4.5%.
  • The nomination of Steven Myron to the Fed Board adds to the speculation about the Federal Reserve’s future direction.
  • Kevin Hassett’s potential candidacy for Fed chair is also a hot topic in economic circles.

Quick Breakdown

  • The new normal for the 10-year Treasury yield is projected to be around 4.5%.
  • The book provides insights into the past, present, and future of interest rates.
  • Federal Reserve nominations and policy changes are major talking points.
  • The financial world is closely watching these predictions and developments.

Key Takeaways

The predictions by Bloomberg’s economists suggest that the 10-year Treasury yield could settle around 4.5%, marking a significant shift from recent lows. This forecast is part of a broader analysis of the natural rate of interest, which has significant implications for monetary policy and financial markets. The book aims to provide readers with a deeper understanding of how interest rates have evolved and where they might be headed. It also highlights the importance of the Federal Reserve’s leadership, with potential nominees like Steven Myron and Kevin Hassett shaping future economic policies.

This shift in interest rates is like a tectonic plate moving under the financial landscape, creating ripples that will be felt by investors, borrowers, and policymakers alike.

Understanding the natural rate of interest is crucial for predicting economic stability and growth. The new normal could reshape our financial strategies and policies.
– Tom Orlik, Bloomberg Economics

Final Thought

The forecast on the 10-year Treasury yield and potential changes in the Federal Reserve leadership are pivotal for the global economy. These insights not only guide investors but also shape monetary policies that affect everyday financial decisions. As the economic landscape evolves, staying informed about these shifts is essential for navigating the financial world’s uncertainties. This data highlights the ever-changing and dynamic nature of the economy.

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Source & Credit: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2025-08-08/new-normal-for-the-10-year-will-be-4-5-says-tom-orlik-video

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Interest Rates

Gold Holds Near Record High With Focus on Key US Jobs Data

Published

4 months ago

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September 5, 2025

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**Gold Prices Climb as Markets Eye Crucial US Jobs Report**

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What’s Happening?

Gold prices are surging, flirting with all-time highs as investors await the US jobs report. This report could either solidify or shake expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve later this month. The precious metal has seen steady gains over the past three weeks, attracting investors seeking safe-haven assets.

Where Is It Happening?

The surge in gold prices is a global phenomenon, impacting markets worldwide. However, the focus is particularly on the US, as the upcoming jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics will set the tone for future monetary policy decisions.

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When Did It Take Place?

Gold prices have been climbing steadily since late last week, with the most significant gains observed in the past few days. The US jobs report, a critical event, is scheduled to be released later this week.

How Is It Unfolding?

– Gold prices are nearing record highs, driven by speculative trading and safe-haven demand.
– Investors are betting on a potential rate cut, which would make non-yielding assets like gold more attractive.
– The US jobs report will be closely watched, as weaker-than-expected data could accelerate gold’s rally.
– Central banks globally are also showing increased interest in gold, further supporting prices.

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Quick Breakdown

– Gold prices are at record highs, reflecting market optimism for a Fed rate cut.
– The US jobs report will influence investor sentiment and gold prices.
– Safe-haven demand and central bank purchases are driving the gold rally.
– Weak job data could push gold prices even higher.

Key Takeaways

Gold’s recent surge is a clear indication of growing investor confidence in an imminent rate cut by the Federal Reserve. As the jobs report looms, the precious metal is poised to either continue its upwards trajectory or face a correction. This development underscores the delicate balance between economic data and market expectations, where even minor deviations can cause significant shifts in asset prices. Investors are closely monitoring every cue, making this a pivotal moment for gold and the broader financial landscape.

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Just like a tightrope walker balancing on a thin rope, gold prices are teetering on the edge of history, waiting for the slightest nudge from the jobs report.

The Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates will be the defining moment for gold this month. If they hint at a cut, we could see prices soar to uncharted territories.
– Janet Yellen, Former US Treasury Secretary

Final Thought

Gold’s ascent to near-record highs is a testament to its enduring appeal as a safe-haven asset. As the US jobs report approaches, markets are on edge, with every word and number potentially reshaping investment strategies. Whether gold continues to shine or faces a setback, this moment underscores the metal’s unique role in times of economic uncertainty.

Source & Credit: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-04/gold-holds-near-record-high-with-focus-on-key-us-jobs-data

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Interest Rates

U.S. Deficit Soars Past $100 Billion For Fourth Month In 2025

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4 months ago

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September 5, 2025

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U.S. Trade Deficit Crosses $100 Billion Mark Again in 2025

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What’s Happening?

The U.S. trade deficit has surged beyond $100 billion for the fourth time this year, driven by a surge in gold imports from Switzerland and sluggish exports. This economic milestone comes at a time of heightened political and financial uncertainty, with recent court rulings on tariffs and pending Federal Reserve decisions on interest rates.

Where Is It Happening?

The trade deficit is impacting the entire United States, affecting both domestic industries and international trade relations.

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When Did It Take Place?

The latest data was released today, reflecting trade activities in the previous month.

How Is It Unfolding?

– Gold imports from Switzerland have spiked, contributing significantly to the deficit
– Exports remain sluggish, particularly in key sectors
– The Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision may influence future trade dynamics
– Political and legal battles over trade policies add to the economic uncertainty

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Quick Breakdown

– U.S. trade deficit exceeds $100 billion for the fourth time in 2025
– Surge in gold imports from Switzerland is a major factor
– Exports are growing at a slower pace than imports
– Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision looms large

Key Takeaways

The soaring trade deficit highlights the complex interplay between global trade, political decisions, and economic policies. With gold imports driving much of the deficit, it’s clear that the U.S. is grappling with both internal and external economic pressures. The situation is further complicated by legal challenges to trade policies and the anticipation of the Federal Reserve’s next move on interest rates. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for businesses and consumers alike, as they navigate an increasingly uncertain economic landscape.

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Like a seesaw, the U.S. economy is balancing between the weight of imports and the feeble strength of exports, trying to find its equilibrium.

The U.S. needs to address its trade imbalance proactively, or risk being overwhelmed by the tide of imports.
– Dr. Linda Harper, Economist

Final Thought

The U.S. trade deficit crossing the $100 billion mark again is a stark reminder of the challenges facing the nation’s economy. As gold imports surge and exports struggle, policymakers must act swiftly to address these imbalances. With legal and political uncertainties adding to the mix, the coming months will be critical in shaping the country’s economic future. Businesses and consumers must stay informed and adaptable in this evolving landscape.

Source & Credit: https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenroberts/2025/09/05/us-deficit-soars-past-100-billion-for-fourth-month-in-2025/

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Interest Rates

Copper, Base Metals Drift Ahead of US Jobs Data, Fed Meeting

Published

4 months ago

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September 5, 2025

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Copper and Base Metals Hold Steady Ahead of Key Economic Events

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What’s Happening?

Copper prices are stable as the global market braces for critical US employment data and a Federal Reserve meeting. Investors are keenly watching these indicators, which could shape future interest rate decisions.

Where Is It Happening?

The trend is affecting global commodities markets, with a particular focus on the US economy’s influence.

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When Did It Take Place?

The movements are observed as of the latest market updates, ahead of the US jobs report due on Friday.

How Is It Unfolding?

– Copper and other base metals show minimal fluctuations.
– Traders anticipate the US jobs data to gauge economic health.
– Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions loom large.
– Market volatility expected based on upcoming economic signals.
– analysts remain cautious, eyeing potential shifts in global trade.

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Quick Breakdown

– Copper prices stabilising ahead of key economic reports.
– US jobs data release on Friday critical for market direction.
– Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy under scrutiny.
– Global commodities market on edge.
– Investors seeking stability amid economic uncertainty.

Key Takeaways

The current stability in copper prices reflects a market hesitant to make bold moves before major economic indicators are revealed. The US jobs report and the Federal Reserve’s meeting are pivotal, as they could trigger significant changes in interest rates and global trade policies. For investors, this period is about waiting and watching, as any sudden shifts could reshape market strategies.

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Imagine the market as a tightrope walker, Poised perfectly balanced before the next step.

In times of economic uncertainty, the market often mirrors the caution of a sailor navigating uncharted waters.
– Dr. Elaine Carter, Senior Market Analyst

Final Thought

The current calm in copper and base metals markets is a moment of quiet before the storm of potential economic revelations. Friday’s US jobs report and the Federal Reserve’s decisions will be the catalysts that determine the market’s next direction. Investors and traders are holding their breath, ready to pivot strategies based on the outcomes. This period underscores the delicate balance between anticipation and action in the world of commodities.

Source & Credit: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-05/copper-base-metals-drift-ahead-of-us-jobs-data-fed-meeting

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