Inflation
Will the US dodge a recession? Economist weighs in on Trump policies
**Trump Policies: Less Growth, Higher Inflation, No Recession?**
What’s Happening?
President Donald Trump’s economic policies—like tariffs and stricter immigration measures—are expected to slow U.S. economic growth and drive up inflation. Despite these challenges, economists predict the country will avoid both a recession and the combo of stagnation and inflation known as stagflation.
Where Is It Happening?
The impact is nationwide, affecting all sectors of the U.S. economy, from trade to domestic spending.
When Did It Take Place?
These effects are anticipated throughout Trump’s term, with gradual changes starting in early 2025 and peaking by mid-2027.
How Is It Unfolding?
- Trade tariffs are hiking the cost of imported goods.
- Stricter immigration policies are limiting labor supply across industries.
- Tax and budget plans are reshaping federal spending priorities.
- Businesses are adapting to increased regulatory and trade uncertainties.
- Consumer spending, a key economic driver, is expected to soften.
Quick Breakdown
- Economic growth will slow but remain positive.
- Inflation rates are projected to rise modestly.
- A full-blown recession is unlikely.
- Stagflation fears are eclipsed by more optimistic forecasts.
Key Takeaways
Despite cautionary policies, the U.S. economy appears resilient enough to navigate higher tariffs and tighter labor markets without tipping into recession. While growth will decelerate, the country can expect a bumpier—but manageable—economic ride than previously feared.
The economy’s adaptability is often underestimated. While challenges exist, the U.S. has shown it can steer through rough waters without capsizing.
– Sarah Meketon, Senior Economist
Final Thought
The U.S. economy will face headwinds in the next few years, but avoid a recession. Trump’s policies may weigh on growth and inflation, yet the nation’s economic engine remains sturdy enough to keep moving forward. Consumers and businesses should brace for adjustments but not panic—recession fears seem overblown.
Source & Credit: https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2025/08/16/trump-policies-economy-inflation-dodge-recession/85668632007/